World Oil Prediction- Year 2041 or Sooner?

Here is the suggested dates using the Authors Numbers quoted from the Article. Scotty

• '...131 years for replacement of gasoline and diesel, given the current pace of research and development; however, world's oil could run dry almost a century before that ...'

• Math: 2010 + 131 = Year 2141  - 100 (century) = Year 2041

2041 - 2010 = 31 Years.

• Where do you see your energy coming from in the Future? 
  
• Leave comments below in comment section. 

• All comments that are Energy Related and in English will be published. Scotty
  

It seems the panic time for both green enthusiasts and peak oil pundits.

According to a new paper by two researchers at the University of California – Davis, it would take 131 years for replacement of gasoline and diesel, given the current pace of research and development; however, world's oil could run dry almost a century before that.

The research was published on Nov. 8 at Environmental Science & Technology, which is based on the theory that market expectations are good predictors reflected in prices of publicly traded securities.

By incorporating market expectations into the model, the authors, Nataliya Malyshkina and Deb Niemeier, indicated that based on their calculation, the peak of oil production could occur between 2010 and 2030, before renewable replacement technologies become viable at around 2140.

The estimates not only delayed the alternative energy timeline, but also pushed up the peak oil deadline. The researchers suggest some previous estimates that pegged year 2040 as the time frame when alternatives would start to replace oil, could be "overly optimistic".

    Article continues:  entire article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/236635-oil-the-clock-is-ticking

|  by: Dian L. Chu November 14, 2010  |

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Peak oil: Not just for conspiracy theorists anymore

By Jim Motavalli

Posted Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:54am PDT

Related topics: Oil and Gas

More from Driving Directions blog

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I understand why people don't listen to wild-eyed conspiracy theorists about the coming calamity of peak oil. Instead, they go to recognized experts like Daniel Yergin (author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power), who tells them that everything is OK and the black gold will keep pumping for many decades to come.
But it ain't necessarily so. And would you believe Lloyd's of London? Lloyd's has joined with the well-respected Royal Institute of International Affairs, also known as Chatham House, to say that Britain (and presumably the rest of the world) needs to be ready for peak oil and erratic energy supplies.
"Companies which are able to take advantage of this new energy reality will increase both their resilience and their competitiveness," according to the report, Sustainable Energy Security: Strategic Risks and Opportunities for Business. The report, says Lloyd's chief executive officer, Dr. Richard Ward, "should cause all risk managers to pause." I guess so!
According to the report:

• Businesses that prepare for the new scarcity will prosper, and failure to act could be catastrophic.
• Access to relatively cheap, combustible, carbon-based energy is an outmoded expectation, caused by surging energy consumption in the Third World, a range of factors affecting conventional fuel production, and "international recognition that continuing to release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere will cause climate chaos."
• The importance of China and emerging Asian economies in energy markets will grow. Chinese oil consumption is rising rapidly, as is Chinese coal production. "Third, their energy security policies are driving investment in clean energy technologies on an unprecedented scale."
• We are heading towards a global oil supply crunch and price spike on international markets. Said spike would prompt "drastic national measures to cut oil dependency."
• Climate change will make energy infrastructure increasingly vulnerable. Global warming itself imperils oil production and delivery due to "severe weather events." For investors, this means betting on instability makes sense.
• Businesses have to address energy risks by reducing oil consumption. In addition to natural scarcity, companies will face regulation such as carbon pricing and cap and trade.
• Investment in renewable energy and "intelligent infrastructure" presents "huge opportunities for new business partnerships." The smart grid is the wave of the future, but in clean energy too there will be scarcities and higher costs. Plus vulnerabilities in a system increasingly dependent on IT. 

I don't know about you, but I'm not sensing ungrounded theorizing here. This is sober analysis, and we need to pay close attention.
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