Forecasts Peak Oil in Seven Years

Maxwell Forecasts Peak Oil in Seven Years

Tags: Charles MaxwellEnergyOilpeak oil

September 13, 2010 by Robert Rapier

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Respected oil analyst and oil industry veteran Charles Maxwell (nicknamed the "Dean of Oil Analysts") has forecast peak oil by 2017 or 2018:

Bracing For Peak Oil Production By Decade's End

His prediction is not so remarkable, as is where he made his prediction. The prediction was in Forbes, which has often scoffed at the notion of a near-term peak. Some of Maxwell's comments:

Maxwell: A bind is clearly coming. We think that the peak in production will actually occur in the period 2015 to 2020. And if I had to pick a particular year, I might use 2017 or 2018. That would suggest that around 2015, we will hit a near-plateau of production around the world, and we will hold it for maybe four or five years. On the other side of that plateau, production will begin slowly moving down. By 2020, we should be headed in a downward direction for oil output in the world each year instead of an upward direction, as we are today.

As far as the impact, you can put Maxwell down as a Long Recession believer. In 2008 interview, he predicted:

"[Maxwell] expects an oil-induced financial crisis to start somewhere in the 2010 to 2015 timeframe," Energytechstocks.com reported. "He said that, unlike the recession the U.S. appears to be in today, 'This will not be six months of hell and then we come out of it.' Rather, Maxwell expects this financial crisis to last at least 10 or 12 years, as the world goes through a prolonged period of price-induced rationing (eg, oil up to $300 a barrel and U.S. pump prices up to $15 a gallon)."

Maxwell and I are also on the same page regarding what will happen with the oil companies. Some people think that as oil declines, the oil companies will go out of business. I have a different view. I think that the rise in oil prices will be faster than the decline in production for most oil companies. Thus, they will make more money on less production. This will infuriate the public and the politicians, who will see sky-high pump prices at the same time the oil companies are raking in record profits (reminiscent of 2007-2008). Thus, there will be many calls for additional windfall profits taxes, and more calls for nationalizing the oil companies. Maxwell's take:

Maxwell: In this case, "allow" means to allow the profits to flow through to the shareholders. What they will do is to put in excess profit taxes or windfall profit taxes on oil. That is the main problem that the oil industry will be dealing with in those future days. But even so, it looks like profits will rise significantly.

While there are some differences in the details, what Maxwell articulated approximates my own views. I view a global oil production peak within the decade as a near-certainty. I think there is a small probability that the peak has already occurred, but we won't know that until several years after the fact. I don't believe that there is anything in the technology pipeline that can prevent a growing gap between supply and today's demand. I believe that gap will be closed by price-induced rationing, which will be very hard on businesses and individuals. Higher prices will result in a very difficult transition period in which we are forced to use less because we simply don't have the money to use the oil that we have historically used. This will be a period of great economic difficulty, lasting for years. At the same time that the economy is in great difficulty, oil companies will continue to reap big profits, causing an enormous amount of resentment and calls for higher taxation and greater regulation of the oil industry.

However, I also believe that humans are very resilient, and that we will eventually come through this. This is why I do not characterize myself as a 'doomer.' We do use a lot more energy than we absolutely have to use. I would bet that most people – if they really had to – could cut their fuel consumption by 50%. It wouldn't necessarily be convenient or easy, but it could be done. But it takes planning to do this, and it is our collective failure to plan that is going to lead to the difficult period. It is during the difficult period that we will get serious about planning, and the subsequent modifications in our energy usage pattern will ultimately lead to recovery on the other side of the crisis. Energy transitions take time, but our energy consumption patterns will be forever altered relative to what they are today. I simply do not believe it will ever be possible to replace major shortfalls in oil production with renewables. It may be possible to replace 20% of today's oil production, but beyond that there will be increasing competition with arable land for food production — and pressure to turn forested land into arable land.

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Small-Business Guide

Despite Struggles, Entrepreneurs Find Ways to Give Back

By JIM WITKIN

Published: September 15, 2010

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The economic slowdown that started in 2008 affected just about every aspect of Gumas Advertising's business — including the company's long-time support for charities in the San Francisco area. "In good times, we did not have to scrutinize our charitable giving or employee perks," said John Gumas, the company's president. "But in these economic times, we've really had to think through what we could afford to give and still be able to make a difference."

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Michele McDonald for The New York Times

Larry O'Toole founded Gentle Giant, a moving company that collected medical supplies for Haitian earthquake victims.

Quick Tips:

When cash is tight, give time, services or products.

Use the opportunity to build relationships with important contacts and references.

Make sure the charity qualifies for tax-exempt status by reviewing its I.R.S. Form 990.

Create opportunities to allow employees to volunteer time and expertise.

Combine your efforts with other businesses or service organizations to multiply your impact.

Suggested Resources:

The Better Business Bureau Wise Giving Alliance offers advice on philanthropic giving.

The Charity Navigator vets charitable organizations and community foundations.

You're the Boss

Have you found creative ways to give back? Let us know.

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By the end of 2008, some 60 percent of small-business owners like Mr. Gumas reported that the economic downturn had affected their charitable giving, according to a study whose sponsors included The Chronicle of Philanthropy, a newspaper that covers nonprofit organizations. Tough times have compelled small-business owners like Mr. Gumas to rethink long-held business practices. But many are finding creative ways to continue their support for good causes — a practice that can have positive side effects. Here are some suggestions based on the experiences of small-business owners.

GIVE TIME AND SERVICES "We want to give back," said Larry O'Toole, founder of Gentle Giant, a moving company based in Massachusetts. "That's an important part of our company culture."

A depressed housing market has meant less demand for the company's services, which has forced it to cut back on cash donations. But with more down time, said Stephen Coady, the company's marketing manager, it has been able to do more pro bono work. In the spring a local real estate agent approached Gentle Giant about collecting donated medical supplies for victims of the Haiti earthquake. Volunteering its trucks and movers, the company collected supplies like crutches, canes, walkers and wheelchairs — filling two large moving vans over the course of two months. Gentle Giant turned the supplies over to Partners in Health, a nonprofit group based in Boston that provides medical services to the poor.

Along with supporting a good cause and bolstering employee spirits, providing the pro bono services enabled the company to build connections with important business contacts, like real estate agents, who are a frequent source of referrals. "We would do this kind of thing anyway," Mr. Coady said, "but you can also use this time to build relationships that you wouldn't have time to cultivate when you are busy."

Small businesses can help nonprofit organizations in a number of ways that may not seem obvious at first, said Christine Marquez-Hudson, the executive director of Mi Casa Resource Center, a nonprofit human services group that helps Latino families in Denver. For instance, Mi Casa called upon a multicultural marketing agency, The Idea Marketing, to create brochures and other marketing materials. When the firm recognized that Mi Casa would also need a cost-effective way to distribute this material, it helped negotiate discounts with one of its suppliers for printing and bulk mail services. "They have the clout and volume of business to get these discounts that we couldn't get if we approached the vendor directly," Ms. Marquez-Hudson said.

GIVING AND OUTREACH Trevor Dierdorff, owner of Amnet, an information technology company in Colorado Springs, has continued to support the Humane Society and the local Veterans Day parade, but he said, "we've had to be more selective this year."

Before the recession, Amnet spent money every year to entertain crucial customers on expensive golf outings. The company also contributed time and money to several local charities. When the economic crunch hit, Mr. Dierdorff looked for creative ways to combine these efforts.

He had been making cash donations to a local charity, but this year saw the opportunity to use his donation to become one of the sponsors of the charity's annual golf tournament. As a result, not only did Amnet gain visibility, but it also received a round in the tournament that Mr. Dierdorff plans to use to entertain clients.

REBUILD EMPLOYEE MORALE While layoffs and shrinking budgets can take a toll on morale, Mr. Gumas said, getting employees involved in pro bono projects can rebuild enthusiasm.

His advertising company has designed marketing brochures, TV commercials, billboards, and print ads for the San Francisco Giants Community Fund, a nonprofit organization that works with underserved youth in the areas of education, health and violence prevention. Mr. Gumas's employees take part in many of the fund's events. "It gives us all a rallying point," he said, "and as tough as things are, we are reminded how lucky we are compared to the next guy."

Research has shown that the most successful company-run volunteer programs allow employees to select the causes they support, said Dr. Dwight Burlingame, who is director of academic programs for Indiana University's Center on Philanthropy. Nonetheless, he suggests that you make sure your small business organizes these volunteer days on behalf of the employees. The most effective morale builders, he said, were programs "organized by the company, especially where there's a company match of time or money and the company provides recognition for the volunteers' efforts."

TAKE THE TAX BREAK Amnet used to offer a discounted rate on information technology services for nonprofit organizations, a practice that helped the nonprofits without affording Mr. Dierdorff any tax benefits. When the economy worsened, he decided to eliminate the discounted rate for nonprofits. Instead, he now charges the standard rate but then donates the equivalent of the discount back to the organization in cash, which allows him to take the tax deduction.

FIND A PARTNER Joining forces with other organizations can compound your impact. If you belong to a local service club like the Chamber of Commerce, Lions or Rotary, look for ways to partner with them on their outreach efforts.

For example, said Rick Wells, chief executive of the San Rafael Chamber of Commerce in California, if cash is tight, "the local business can volunteer employee time, help with logistics, or donate products and services which can be given away as raffle prizes." Donating products, he noted, can also help the business clear out excess inventory.

Like so many companies, Dairy Specialists, which designs, builds and supplies commercial dairies in Colorado, has had to trim its work force. But when the decline in revenue put a squeeze on the company's long-standing college scholarship program, Robert Brown, the company's chief financial officer, went looking for partners. He found many of the businesses that served the same agricultural community were receptive to donating matching funds. "If you can't do these things on your own anymore," Mr. Brown said, "look to some of your bigger business partners to help you."

REVIEW YOUR STRATEGY "Businesses are bombarded with requests for contributions," said Sandra Miniutti, vice president of marketing with Charity Navigator, a nonprofit organization that tracks public charities. "It's important to have some standards in place."

This is also a good time to review the strategic purpose of your philanthropy, said Scott Hauge, president of CAL Insurance, a San Francisco-based agency. Developing a philanthropy "playbook," he said, makes it easier for you to stick to your mission and keep it aligned with your business goals.

While many small businesses are learning to do more with less, said Mr. Gumas, giving to good causes will always be the right thing to do. He subscribes to a karmic view of the business cycle. "When you are doing the right things for the right reasons," he said, "good things will come of it."

A version of this article appeared in print on September 16, 2010, on page B10 of the New York edition.

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Gov't say banks should share Fannie, Freddie costs

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More articles from the Today's News section J.D. Power: Quality Up, Compaints Down Despite alluringly low rates, mortgage refinancing elusive At IRS, backlog for home buyers' tax credit Mortgage Applications Drop Beazer Homes Updates Expectations for Certain FY 2010 Operating Data

Source: Associated Press/AP Online
Publication date: September 15, 2010

By ALAN ZIBEL

WASHINGTON - The nation's largest banks have an obligation to pay some of the cost for bailing out mortgage buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because they sold them bad mortgages, a government regulator said Wednesday.

Edward DeMarco, the acting director for the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said the banks this summer have refused to take back $11 billion in bad loans sold to the two government-controlled companies, in written testimony submitted for a House subcommittee hearing Wednesday. A third of those requests have been outstanding for at least three months.

DeMarco said the banks have a legal obligation to buy back the loans and called the delays "a significant concern." He said the government may take new steps to force those buybacks if "discussions do not yield reasonable outcomes soon."

In an interview with reporters after the hearing, DeMarco declined to give further details on what the government might do next. He said only that "we're looking for contractual obligations to be fulfilled."

The two mortgage giants nearly collapsed two years ago when the housing market went bust. The government stepped in to rescue them and it has cost taxpayers about $148 billion so far. The rescue is on track to be the most expensive piece of stabilizing the financial system.

Investors who buy loans from banks have the right to force lenders to repurchase them if they later discover fraudulent statements on loan applications.

The leading Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee subcommittee indicated the banks bear some responsibility.

"We must begin to think about approaches for recouping taxpayers' money in the long run," said Rep. Paul Kanjorski, D-Pa. "We found a way to pay for the savings and loan crisis, and we can survey find a way to recover the costs associated with this crisis."

Wall Street has worried that the costs of bailing out Fannie and Freddie could get pushed back on big banks. Fitch Ratings said in a report last month that the four largest U.S. banks could book losses of up to $42 billion if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac force them to take back troubled mortgages they made. It also estimated that JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. could record $17 billion in losses if they repurchase a quarter of the mortgage giants' seriously delinquent loans.

Fannie and Freddie buy mortgages and package them into securities with a guarantee against default.

The Obama administration is working on a plan to restructure the mortgage market and make sure home loans are affordable. Officials don't plan to release details until next year. But Michael Barr, an assistant Treasury secretary, told the panel Wednesday that Fannie and Freddie "will not exist in the same form as they did in the past."

Figuring out what to do about Fannie and Freddie is a divisive issue on Capitol Hill, and it could grow even more contentious if Republicans take control of one or both houses of Congress.

Republicans have seized on the administration's management of Fannie and Freddie to illustrate Democrats' push for broadening the reach of the federal government. They say loans acquired by Fannie and Freddie since the September 2008 takeover have put taxpayers at risk.

"It's time for the government to get out of that business," said Rep. Spencer Bachus, the top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee.

But Democrats and regulators say the loans acquired by Fannie and Freddie before their takeover represent the overwhelming majority of the companies' losses. New loans acquired since then have been performing well, they note.

"There is no urgency," to reform the two companies, said Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. "The pattern of abuse they had engaged in has been changed...Fannie and Freddie are behaving differently and are causing far less problems."

A service of YellowBrix, Inc.

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Arctic sea ice shrinks to third lowest area on record AFP/ESA/File – An Envisat image that captures sea ice and cloud streets in the Svalbard Archipelago in April 2010. Arctic … Play Video Climate Change Video:Pre-Viking find in Norway mountains Reuters Play Video Climate Change Video:Eco-Friendly Meals ABC News by Karin Zeitvogel Karin Zeitvogel – 21 mins ago WASHINGTON (AFP) – Arctic sea ice melted over the summer to cover the third smallest area on record, US researchers said Wednesday, warning global warming could leave the region ice free in the month of September 2030. Last week, at the end of the spring and summer "melt season" in the Arctic, sea ice covered 4.76 million square kilometers (1.84 million square miles), the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center said in an annual report. "This is only the third time in the satellite record that ice extent has fallen below five million square kilometers (1.93 million square miles), and all those occurrences have been within the past four years," the report said. A separate report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that in August, too, Arctic sea ice coverage was down sharply, covering an average of six million square kilometers (2.3 million square miles), or 22 percent below the average extent from 1979 to 2000. The August coverage was the second lowest for Arctic sea ice since records began in 1979. Only 2007 saw a smaller area of the northern sea covered in ice in August, NOAA said. The record low for Arctic sea ice cover at the end of the spring and summer "melt season" in September, was also in 2007, when ice covered just 4.13 million square kilometers (1.595 million square miles). Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC, said climate-change skeptics might seize the fact that Arctic sea ice did not hit a record-low extent this year, but said they would be barking up the wrong tree if they claimed the shrinkage had been stopped. "Only the third lowest? It didn't set a new record? Well, right. It didn't set a new record but we're still headed down. We're not looking at any kind of recovery here," he told AFP. In fact, Serreze said, Arctic sea ice cover is shrinking year-round, with more ice melting in the spring and summer months and less ice forming in the fall and winter. "The Arctic, like the globe as a whole, is warming up and warming up quickly, and we're starting to see the sea ice respond to that. Really, in all months, the sea ice cover is shrinking -- there's an overall downward trend," Serreze told AFP. "The extent of Arctic ice is dropping at something like 11 percent per decade -- very quickly, in other words. "Our thinking is that by 2030 or so, if you went out to the Arctic on the first of September, you probably won't see any ice at all. It will look like a blue ocean, we're losing it that quickly," he said. Losing sea ice cover in the Arctic would affect everything from the obvious, such as people who live in the far north and polar bears, to global weather patterns, said Serreze. "The Arctic acts as a sort of refrigerator of the northern hemisphere. As we lose the ice cover, we start to change the nature of that refrigerator, and what happens up there affects what happens down here in the middle latitudes," he said. "We might have less cold outbreaks, which you might say is a good thing, but it's not such a good thing in regions that depend on snowfall for their water supply." NOAA noted in its report that the first eight months of 2010 were in equal first place with the same period in 1998 for the warmest combined land and ocean surface temperatures on record worldwide, and the summer months were the second warmest on record globally, after 1998. Build Green Scotty, Scotts Contracting www.stlouisrenewableenergy.com www.stlouisrenewableenergy.blogspot.com

Re: Enviros: 1 - Big Polluters: $514 Million

On Wed, Sep 15, 2010 at 2:00 PM, Environmental Defense Action Fund <takeaction@edf.org> wrote:

Having trouble using links or viewing images? View the web version. Dear Scotts, Big polluters and K St lobbyists are taking aim on EPA's power to curb climate emissions under the Clean Air Act—and we urgently need your help to defend it. Tell your Senators to let EPA do its job. Good news broke late yesterday that the Senate Appropriations Committee would cancel this week's mark up of the EPA and Interior Department spending bill, temporarily scuttling plans to vote on a big polluter-supported amendment that would restrict EPA's plans to limit America's climate pollution. This is a short-term victory and we want to thank the tens of thousands of EDF supporters who emailed their Senators and donated to our campaign. But, this is no time to hang a "Mission Accomplished" banner. Polluting interests have already spent $514 million to lobby against climate legislation. And we know from recent experience that there is no dirty trick or sleazy tactic they won't use to block EPA's plan to cut America's climate pollution. Please take this opportunity to email your Senators and make sure they know you will continue to oppose any and all efforts to limit EPA's efforts to reduce America's climate pollution or to weaken America's air pollution laws. More Background The EPA is scheduled to begin implementing new climate pollution limits on January 1. This stems from a 2007 Supreme Court ruling declaring that the EPA not only has the authority to regulate carbon emissions under the Clean Air Act, it has the obligation to do so. Last year, the EPA issued an endangerment finding detailing the threat of global warming to human health. EPA later issued its plans to initiate pollution limits starting with America's biggest emitters. When the Senate decided it was not going to vote on a comprehensive climate and energy bill this year, the full attention of the big polluters and their high-priced lobbyists shifted to EPA climate action. Senators from both sides of the aisle offered legislative proposals to limit EPA authority, including an insidious plan to attach an amendment to must-pass appropriations bills, like the EPA-Interior bill. This is part of a broader strategy by the big polluters to strike down a wide range of pollution limits. Corporate lobbyists are also pushing to weaken the "boiler rule," which limits emissions of toxic mercury, dioxins, and other hazardous pollutants. And the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has pledged to spend $100 million over the next few years to promote big polluter and other corporate interests. EPA climate action and other pollution limits are among their top targets. We must remain vigilant in the fight. Please email your Senators today to make sure they know you support EPA climate action and you support America's clean air laws. We dodged a bullet this week. With your continued support, we'll stay on top of this threat. Thank you for your activism and support, Environmental Defense Action Fund Environmental Defense Action Fund 1875 Connecticut Ave. NW, Suite 600 Washington, DC 20009 1-800-591-1919

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Peak oil: Not just for conspiracy theorists anymore

By Jim Motavalli

Posted Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:54am PDT

Related topics: Oil and Gas

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I understand why people don't listen to wild-eyed conspiracy theorists about the coming calamity of peak oil. Instead, they go to recognized experts like Daniel Yergin (author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power), who tells them that everything is OK and the black gold will keep pumping for many decades to come.
But it ain't necessarily so. And would you believe Lloyd's of London? Lloyd's has joined with the well-respected Royal Institute of International Affairs, also known as Chatham House, to say that Britain (and presumably the rest of the world) needs to be ready for peak oil and erratic energy supplies.
"Companies which are able to take advantage of this new energy reality will increase both their resilience and their competitiveness," according to the report, Sustainable Energy Security: Strategic Risks and Opportunities for Business. The report, says Lloyd's chief executive officer, Dr. Richard Ward, "should cause all risk managers to pause." I guess so!
According to the report:

• Businesses that prepare for the new scarcity will prosper, and failure to act could be catastrophic.
• Access to relatively cheap, combustible, carbon-based energy is an outmoded expectation, caused by surging energy consumption in the Third World, a range of factors affecting conventional fuel production, and "international recognition that continuing to release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere will cause climate chaos."
• The importance of China and emerging Asian economies in energy markets will grow. Chinese oil consumption is rising rapidly, as is Chinese coal production. "Third, their energy security policies are driving investment in clean energy technologies on an unprecedented scale."
• We are heading towards a global oil supply crunch and price spike on international markets. Said spike would prompt "drastic national measures to cut oil dependency."
• Climate change will make energy infrastructure increasingly vulnerable. Global warming itself imperils oil production and delivery due to "severe weather events." For investors, this means betting on instability makes sense.
• Businesses have to address energy risks by reducing oil consumption. In addition to natural scarcity, companies will face regulation such as carbon pricing and cap and trade.
• Investment in renewable energy and "intelligent infrastructure" presents "huge opportunities for new business partnerships." The smart grid is the wave of the future, but in clean energy too there will be scarcities and higher costs. Plus vulnerabilities in a system increasingly dependent on IT. 

I don't know about you, but I'm not sensing ungrounded theorizing here. This is sober analysis, and we need to pay close attention.
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